xian_algorithm_new/app/config/dbn/rainfall_cpt_params.yaml

# ================================================================
# 条件概率表（CPT）配置
# ================================================================

# 推理配置
match_strategy: first       # 首条匹配（规则优先级从上到下，max为最大匹配）
default_strategy: use_default  # 无匹配时使用 default_probability

# ============================================
# 触发层
# ============================================

rain_intensity:
  type: prior
  # 西安气象站统计：无雨~小雨占60%，中雨~大雨25%，暴雨+15%
  # [无雨, 小雨, 中雨, 大雨, 暴雨, 大暴雨, 特大暴雨]
  probabilities: [0.35, 0.25, 0.15, 0.10, 0.08, 0.05, 0.02]

duration:
  type: prior
  # 西安暴雨特征：短历时（<3h）占多数，长历时（>12h）与华西秋雨相关
  # [短, 中, 长]
  probabilities: [0.50, 0.30, 0.20]

accum_rain:
  type: prior
  # 西安年均降水550-700mm，汛期集中60-70%
  # [微量, 小雨, 中雨, 大雨, 极端]
  probabilities: [0.30, 0.25, 0.20, 0.15, 0.10]

# ============================================
# 灾害层（条件概率）
# 规则匹配策略：首条匹配，从上到下扫描，命中即返回
# 高风险规则在前，低风险兜底规则在后
# ============================================

# ----------------------------------------
# 滑坡（Landslide）
# 西安特征：
#   - 黄土滑坡：黄土台塬塬边（白鹿塬、神禾塬、少陵塬），坡度15-35°
#   - 岩质滑坡：秦岭北坡变质岩/花岗岩区，坡度>25°
#   - 工程滑坡：城区开挖坡脚（地铁/道路建设）、弃土加载
#   - 触发因素：前期降雨饱和+短历时高强度暴雨
#   - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线滑坡密度最高
# ----------------------------------------
landslide:
  type: conditional
  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, slope, soil_type, lithology, ndvi, soil_moisture, aspect, dist_to_river, dist_to_fault, landuse]
  default_probability: 0.02
  rules:
    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
    # 暴雨+陡坡+前期饱和：秦岭北坡典型触发条件
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.75
    # 暴雨+陡坡+断裂带附近：秦岭北缘断裂沿线，岩体破碎
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.72
    # 长历时暴雨+陡坡+饱和：持续降雨导致深层渗流
    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.70

    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
    # 暴雨+中陡坡：黄土塬边典型触发条件
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [medium, high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.60
    # 大雨+陡坡+松散堆积物：黄土滑坡物质条件充分
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
      probability: 0.58
    # 暴雨+中陡坡+断裂带附近
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [medium, high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.55
    # 城区开挖坡脚/弃土加载+暴雨：工程滑坡
    - condition: {landuse: [urban], slope: [medium, high, very_high], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]}
      probability: 0.52
    # 大雨+陡坡+初育土（新积土/风沙土，黄土）：黄土塬边滑坡
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [high, very_high], soil_type: [alluvial, aeolian]}
      probability: 0.50

    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
    # 大雨+中坡+饱和
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], slope: [medium, high], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.40
    # 中雨+陡坡
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], slope: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.35
    # 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物：塬面黄土
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
      probability: 0.30
    # 断裂带+陡坡+降雨（无强降雨时基岩蠕变速率极低，需降雨触发失稳）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.25
    # 城区+中坡+降雨：工程扰动需降雨触发
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], landuse: [urban], slope: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.20

    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
      probability: 0.02
    - condition: {slope: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.02

# ----------------------------------------
# 泥石流（Debris Flow）
# 西安特征：
#   - 集中在秦岭北麓沟道（周至、户县、长安、蓝田）
#   - 物源：秦岭北缘断裂破碎带+坡面松散堆积物+崩塌堆积体
#   - 沟道纵坡大（>15°），高差500-2000m，势能充足
#   - 触发：短历时高强度暴雨（3h降雨>50mm）
#   - 高发区海拔800-1500m（中山带，物源最丰富）
# ----------------------------------------
debris_flow:
  type: conditional
  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, slope, soil_type, lithology, sand_content, ndvi, soil_moisture, dist_to_river, dist_to_fault, elevation]
  default_probability: 0.02
  rules:
    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
    # 暴雨+陡坡+高含沙量：典型泥石流触发条件
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], sand_content: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.80
    # 暴雨+陡坡+断裂带附近：破碎岩体提供丰富物源
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.75
    # 暴雨+中高山区+松散堆积物：秦岭北麓沟道泥石流
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
      probability: 0.75
    # 长历时暴雨+陡坡+饱和：深层渗透触发
    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.72

    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
    # 暴雨+中陡坡：沟道汇流
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [medium, high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.60
    # 大雨+陡坡+高含沙量
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [high, very_high], sand_content: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.55
    # 中高山区+中等降雨：物源区本身不稳定
    - condition: {elevation: [high, very_high], slope: [medium, high, very_high], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]}
      probability: 0.55
    # 松散堆积物+陡坡+大雨：黄土泥石流
    - condition: {lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic], slope: [high, very_high], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]}
      probability: 0.52

    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
    # 大雨+中坡
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], slope: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.30
    # 中高山区+中等降雨：物源区稳定性差
    - condition: {elevation: [high, very_high], slope: [medium, high], rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy]}
      probability: 0.28
    # 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
      probability: 0.25
    # 断裂带+陡坡+降雨（无降雨时崩塌堆积物缺乏运移介质，泥石流无法启动）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.22

    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
      probability: 0.01
    - condition: {slope: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.02
    - condition: {elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.02

# ----------------------------------------
# 山洪（Flash Flood）
# 西安特征：
#   - 秦岭北坡溪流：短沟、陡坡、汇流快，暴雨后1-2h即达峰值
#   - 城区河流（灞河、浐河、沣河、涝河）：暴雨叠加城市径流
#   - 渭河平原低洼区：排水不畅+河道顶托
#   - 关键控制因子：降雨强度、前期土壤湿度、地形坡度
#   - 典型事件：2016年7月长安区秦岭北坡山洪，2021年8月蓝田山洪
# ----------------------------------------
flash_flood:
  type: conditional
  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, accum_rain, elevation, terrain, dist_to_river, soil_moisture]
  default_probability: 0.04
  rules:
    # === 极高风险（≥0.80）===
    # 暴雨+饱和土壤+近河道：入渗率接近零，全部转为地表径流
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], soil_moisture: [high], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.90
    # 暴雨+饱和+山地地形：秦岭北坡典型山洪条件
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], soil_moisture: [medium, high], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
      probability: 0.85
    # 大暴雨+近河道+低洼区：渭河平原洪水
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close], elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.82

    # === 高风险（0.55-0.75）===
    # 暴雨+近河道
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.70
    # 暴雨+山地地形（远离河道但汇流快）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
      probability: 0.65
    # 大雨+饱和土壤+近河道
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], soil_moisture: [medium, high], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.60
    # 长历时暴雨+山地：持续汇流
    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
      probability: 0.58
    # 极端累计降雨+山地地形
    - condition: {accum_rain: [extreme], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
      probability: 0.55

    # === 中风险（0.25-0.45）===
    # 大雨+近河道
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.45
    # 暴雨+湿土（非饱和）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], soil_moisture: [medium]}
      probability: 0.40
    # 大雨+山地地形
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
      probability: 0.35
    # 中雨+饱和+近河道
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], soil_moisture: [high], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.40
    # 极端累计+低洼区
    - condition: {accum_rain: [extreme], elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.35
    # 暴雨+缓坡+近河道（平原河道溢出）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close], terrain: [plain, flat_plain]}
      probability: 0.30

    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
      probability: 0.01
    - condition: {dist_to_river: [far, very_far]}
      probability: 0.03

# ----------------------------------------
# 内涝（Waterlogging）
# 西安特征：
#   - 主城区（碑林、莲湖、新城）：不透水面率>60%，老城区管网密度不足
#   - 高新区/经开区：新建区管网较好，但不透水面率高
#   - 渭河平原低洼区：排水出口受河道水位顶托
#   - 典型事件：2016年7月城区内涝（1h降雨46mm），2018年7月暴雨内涝
#   - 关键控制因子：降雨强度+不透水面+管网密度+地形低洼
# ----------------------------------------
waterlogging:
  type: conditional
  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, accum_rain, elevation, landuse, impervious, soil_moisture, dist_to_river, pipe_density]
  default_probability: 0.06
  rules:
    # === 极高风险（≥0.80）===
    # 暴雨+高不透水面+管网不足：老城区典型内涝条件
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], impervious: [high, medium], pipe_density: [none, low]}
      probability: 0.90
    # 极端累计降雨+长历时+高不透水面：持续强降雨
    - condition: {accum_rain: [heavy, extreme], duration: [long], impervious: [high, medium]}
      probability: 0.82
    # 极端累计+低洼区+管网不足：积水无处排出
    - condition: {accum_rain: [heavy, extreme], elevation: [very_low, low], pipe_density: [none, low]}
      probability: 0.80

    # === 高风险（0.55-0.75）===
    # 暴雨+高不透水面
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], impervious: [high, medium]}
      probability: 0.72
    # 大雨+长历时+高不透水面
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], duration: [long], impervious: [high, medium]}
      probability: 0.65
    # 暴雨+城市用地+管网不足
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], landuse: [urban], pipe_density: [none, low]}
      probability: 0.68
    # 大雨+中高不透水面
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], impervious: [high, medium]}
      probability: 0.60
    # 极端累计+低洼区（不透水面不高也会积水）
    - condition: {accum_rain: [extreme], elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.58
    # 饱和土壤+暴雨+低洼区：入渗饱和后地表积水
    - condition: {soil_moisture: [high], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.55

    # === 中风险（0.25-0.45）===
    # 大雨+中高不透水面
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], impervious: [high, medium]}
      probability: 0.40
    # 中等累计+管网不足
    - condition: {accum_rain: [moderate, heavy], pipe_density: [none, low], impervious: [high, medium]}
      probability: 0.38
    # 暴雨+低不透水面（非城区但排水不畅）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], impervious: [none, very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.30
    # 近河道+暴雨：排水出口受河道水位顶托
    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.35
    # 农田积水：低洼农田排水不畅
    - condition: {landuse: [farmland], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.30

    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
    # 老城区管网堵塞可在无雨时积水
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain], pipe_density: [none, low], landuse: [urban]}
      probability: 0.05
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
      probability: 0.02
    - condition: {impervious: [none, very_low, low], pipe_density: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.03

# ----------------------------------------
# 崩塌（Collapse）
# 西安特征：
#   - 黄土崩塌：渭河、灞河、浐河、沣河侧蚀黄土塬边，形成陡坎
#   - 岩质崩塌：秦岭北坡陡崖（>45°），节理发育的花岗岩/变质岩
#   - 工程崩塌：道路切坡、采石场边坡
#   - 触发因素：降雨入渗软化+冻融风化+河流侧蚀
#   - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线岩体破碎，崩塌密度高
# ----------------------------------------
collapse:
  type: conditional
  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, slope, lithology, soil_moisture, dist_to_fault, dist_to_river]
  default_probability: 0.02
  rules:
    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
    # 暴雨+陡坡+松散岩性（黄土/碎屑岩）：黄土塬边崩塌
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [terrigenous, unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
      probability: 0.72
    # 近河道+松散堆积物+陡坡+降雨：河流侧蚀致崩塌（渭河/灞河/浐河）
    # 降雨是崩塌的直接触发因素，无降雨时河流侧蚀是缓慢累积过程，不构成即时风险
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.70

    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
    # 暴雨+陡坡+断裂带附近：岩体破碎
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [medium, high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
      probability: 0.65
    # 暴雨+中陡坡+饱和：岩土体强度降低
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [medium, high, very_high], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.60
    # 近河道+暴雨+中陡坡：岸坡浸泡+洪水冲刷
    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [medium, high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.58
    # 暴雨+中陡坡
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [medium, high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.50
    # 长历时+大雨+陡坡+松散岩性：持续入渗软化
    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [terrigenous, unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
      probability: 0.55

    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
    # 近河道+缓坡+松散堆积物+降雨：侧蚀累积效应需降雨触发
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [medium]}
      probability: 0.35
    # 大雨+中坡
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], slope: [medium, high]}
      probability: 0.30
    # 断裂带+陡坡+降雨（无强降雨时蠕变崩塌概率极低，需降雨触发）
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
      probability: 0.25
    # 暴雨+缓坡+松散岩性
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
      probability: 0.22

    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
      probability: 0.01
    - condition: {slope: [very_low, low]}
      probability: 0.01