wzy-warehouse
267 lines
13 KiB
YAML
267 lines
13 KiB
YAML
# ================================================================
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# 地震灾害链 条件概率表（CPT）配置
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# ================================================================
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# 地震触发地质灾害：滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
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# 参考：
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# - Keefer (1984) Landslides caused by earthquakes
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# - Rodriguez et al. (1999) Earthquake-induced landslides
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# - 1556年华县M8.0地震诱发滑坡史料
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# - GB 18306-2015 中国地震动参数区划图
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# 推理配置
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match_strategy: first
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default_strategy: use_default
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# ============================================
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# 触发层（地震参数先验概率）
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# ============================================
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# 主要发震构造：秦岭北缘断裂（M7.0+）、渭河断裂（M6.5+）
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# 历史最大地震：1556年华县M8.0（距西安约80km）
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magnitude:
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type: prior
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# 西安地区地震危险性分析：
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# - M<4.0（minor）：频繁但无显著地质灾害
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# - M4.0-4.9（light）：偶发，轻微地质灾害
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# - M5.0-5.9（moderate）：可能触发近场滑坡
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# - M6.0-6.9（strong）：显著地质灾害
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# - M7.0-7.9（major）：区域性地质灾害
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# - M≥8.0（great）：灾难性（如1556年华县地震）
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# [minor, light, moderate, strong, major, great]
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probabilities: [0.40, 0.25, 0.18, 0.10, 0.05, 0.02]
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epicenter_distance:
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type: prior
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# 西安地区可能的震中距分布：
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# - <30km（very_near）：本地断裂发震
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# - 30-100km（near）：渭河断裂、秦岭北缘断裂
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# - 100-300km（moderate）：汾渭地震带
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# - >300km（far）：远场地震
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# [very_near, near, moderate, far]
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probabilities: [0.10, 0.25, 0.35, 0.30]
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seismic_intensity:
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type: prior
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# 西安地区地震烈度分布：
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# - I-V（minor）：无显著地质灾害
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# - VI-VII（light）：轻微地质灾害
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# - VIII-IX（moderate）：显著地质灾害
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# - X-XII（severe）：严重地质灾害
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# > XII（extreme）：灾难性（1556年华县地震西安烈度约IX-X）
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# [minor, light, moderate, severe, extreme]
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probabilities: [0.35, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10, 0.05]
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# ============================================
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# 灾害层（条件概率）
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# 规则匹配策略：首条匹配，从上到下扫描，命中即返回
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# 高风险规则在前，低风险兜底规则在后
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# ============================================
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# ----------------------------------------
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# 滑坡（Landslide）- 地震触发
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# 西安特征：
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# - 黄土滑坡：黄土台塬塬边（白鹿塬、神禾塬、少陵塬），地震时黄土震陷
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# - 岩质滑坡：秦岭北坡变质岩/花岗岩区，节理面在地震荷载下失稳
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# - 工程滑坡：城区开挖坡脚，地震加剧变形
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# - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线近场效应显著
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# - 1556年华县地震：触发了渭河平原大规模黄土滑坡
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# ----------------------------------------
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landslide:
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type: conditional
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parents: [magnitude, epicenter_distance, slope, lithology, soil_moisture, dist_to_fault, ndvi, soil_type, landuse, terrain]
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default_probability: 0.02
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rules:
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# === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
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# 大地震+近场+陡坡：最大规模地震滑坡
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# 参考：M7.0+近场（<30km）陡坡区滑坡概率>80%（Keefer 1984）
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.85
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# 大地震+近场+饱和土体：黄土震陷+液化
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.82
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# 强震+近场+陡坡+断裂带附近：近场效应+岩体破碎
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
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probability: 0.80
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# 大地震+近场+松散堆积物：黄土滑坡（1556年华县地震典型场景）
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
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probability: 0.78
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# === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
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# 强震+近场+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.65
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# 大地震+中距+陡坡+断裂带
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
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probability: 0.62
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# 强震+中陡坡+松散堆积物：黄土塬边滑坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [medium, high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
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probability: 0.60
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# 强震+陡坡+饱和土体
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [high, very_high], soil_moisture: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.58
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# 大地震+近场+丘陵地形：黄土塬边
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], terrain: [hill, gentle_hill]}
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probability: 0.55
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# 强震+近场+初育土（黄土）
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], soil_type: [entisol]}
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probability: 0.52
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# === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
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# 中强震+近场+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.40
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# 强震+中距+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.35
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# 强震+中坡+松散堆积物
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [medium, high], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
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probability: 0.30
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# 大地震+远距（仍有影响，1556年华县地震影响范围>300km）
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [moderate, far], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.28
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# 断裂带+陡坡（即使中小地震也有蠕变风险）
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- condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.25
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# 中强震+中坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], slope: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.22
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# === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
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- condition: {magnitude: [minor]}
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probability: 0.02
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- condition: {epicenter_distance: [far]}
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probability: 0.02
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- condition: {slope: [very_low, low]}
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probability: 0.01
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# ----------------------------------------
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# 泥石流（Debris Flow）- 地震触发
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# 西安特征：
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# - 秦岭北麓沟道：地震松动物源→后续降雨触发泥石流
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# - 地震直接触发：强震+陡坡+松散物源可直接启动泥石流
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# - 震后效应：地震后数年内泥石流频率显著增加（物源松动）
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# - 典型场景：M6.0+秦岭北坡沟道区
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# ----------------------------------------
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debris_flow:
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type: conditional
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parents: [magnitude, epicenter_distance, slope, elevation, lithology, sand_content, soil_moisture, dist_to_fault, ndvi]
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default_probability: 0.01
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rules:
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# === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
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# 大地震+近场+陡坡+高含沙量：物源充足+强震动
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [high, very_high], sand_content: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.80
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# 大地震+近场+中高山区+松散堆积物：秦岭北麓沟道
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], elevation: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
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probability: 0.78
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# 强震+近场+陡坡+断裂带：破碎岩体提供物源
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
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probability: 0.75
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# 大地震+饱和+陡坡：液化+滑坡→泥石流
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], soil_moisture: [medium, high], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.72
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# === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
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# 强震+近场+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.62
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# 强震+中高山区+松散堆积物
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], elevation: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
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probability: 0.58
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# 大地震+中距+陡坡+高含沙量
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [high, very_high], sand_content: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.55
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# 强震+陡坡+松散堆积物
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
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probability: 0.52
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# === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
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# 中强震+近场+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.38
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# 强震+中高山区（物源区本身不稳定）
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], elevation: [high, very_high], slope: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.30
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# 大地震+远距+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [moderate, far], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.28
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# 断裂带+陡坡+松散堆积物（无强震也有蠕变崩塌→物源积累）
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- condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
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probability: 0.22
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# === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
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- condition: {magnitude: [minor]}
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probability: 0.01
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- condition: {slope: [very_low, low]}
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probability: 0.01
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- condition: {elevation: [very_low, low]}
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probability: 0.01
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# ----------------------------------------
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# 崩塌（Collapse）- 地震触发
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# 西安特征：
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# - 黄土崩塌：渭河、灞河、浐河侧蚀黄土塬边+地震触发
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# - 岩质崩塌：秦岭北坡陡崖（>45°），花岗岩/变质岩节理面失稳
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# - 崩塌是地震触发最敏感的地质灾害类型
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# - 1556年华县地震：秦岭北坡大规模崩塌
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# - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线崩塌密度最高
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# ----------------------------------------
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collapse:
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type: conditional
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parents: [magnitude, epicenter_distance, slope, lithology, dist_to_fault, dist_to_river, soil_moisture]
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default_probability: 0.02
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rules:
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# === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
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# 大地震+近场+极陡坡+硬岩（花岗岩/变质岩）：节理面失稳
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [very_high], lithology: [acid_rock, metamorphic, basic_rock]}
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probability: 0.88
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# 大地震+近场+陡坡+断裂带：岩体极度破碎
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
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probability: 0.85
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# 大地震+近场+松散堆积物+陡坡：黄土塬边崩塌
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated, terrigenous, mixed_clastic]}
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probability: 0.80
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# 强震+近场+极陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [very_high]}
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probability: 0.75
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# === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
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# 强震+近场+陡坡+断裂带
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
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probability: 0.68
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# 大地震+中距+陡坡+硬岩
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [acid_rock, metamorphic]}
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probability: 0.62
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# 强震+近场+陡坡+松散堆积物：黄土崩塌
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
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probability: 0.60
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# 近河道+陡坡+松散堆积物+地震：河流侧蚀+地震触发
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- condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [unconsolidated], magnitude: [strong, major, great]}
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probability: 0.58
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# 强震+中陡坡+断裂带
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [medium, high, very_high], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
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probability: 0.55
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# === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
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# 中强震+近场+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.40
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# 强震+中距+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.35
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# 近河道+中坡+松散堆积物（无强震也有侧蚀崩塌）
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- condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [medium, high]}
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probability: 0.30
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# 断裂带+陡坡（无强震也有蠕变崩塌）
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- condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.28
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# 大地震+远距+陡坡
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- condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [moderate, far], slope: [high, very_high]}
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probability: 0.25
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# === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
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- condition: {magnitude: [minor]}
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probability: 0.01
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- condition: {slope: [very_low, low]}
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probability: 0.01
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