更新条件概率表

This commit is contained in:
wzy-warehouse
2026-06-14 15:52:56 +08:00
parent c375cd33d9
commit d4eee07890
+13 -12
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@@ -86,11 +86,11 @@ landslide:
# 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物:塬面黄土 # 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物:塬面黄土
- condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
probability: 0.30 probability: 0.30
# 断裂带+陡坡(无强降雨也有基岩蠕变风险 # 断裂带+陡坡+降雨(无强降雨基岩蠕变速率极低,需降雨触发失稳
- condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
probability: 0.25 probability: 0.25
# 城区+中坡:工程扰动 # 城区+中坡+降雨:工程扰动需降雨触发
- condition: {landuse: [urban], slope: [medium, high]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], landuse: [urban], slope: [medium, high]}
probability: 0.20 probability: 0.20
# === 低风险兜底(≤0.05=== # === 低风险兜底(≤0.05===
@@ -151,8 +151,8 @@ debris_flow:
# 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物 # 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物
- condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
probability: 0.25 probability: 0.25
# 断裂带+陡坡(无降雨崩塌堆积物也可启动) # 断裂带+陡坡+降雨(无降雨崩塌堆积物缺乏运移介质,泥石流无法启动)
- condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
probability: 0.22 probability: 0.22
# === 低风险兜底(≤0.05=== # === 低风险兜底(≤0.05===
@@ -320,8 +320,9 @@ collapse:
# 暴雨+陡坡+松散岩性(黄土/碎屑岩):黄土塬边崩塌 # 暴雨+陡坡+松散岩性(黄土/碎屑岩):黄土塬边崩塌
- condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [terrigenous, unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [high, very_high], lithology: [terrigenous, unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
probability: 0.72 probability: 0.72
# 近河道+松散堆积物+陡坡:河流侧蚀致崩塌(渭河/灞河/浐河) # 近河道+松散堆积物+陡坡+降雨:河流侧蚀致崩塌(渭河/灞河/浐河)
- condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [high, very_high]} # 降雨是崩塌的直接触发因素,无降雨时河流侧蚀是缓慢累积过程,不构成即时风险
- condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [high, very_high]}
probability: 0.70 probability: 0.70
# === 高风险(0.50-0.65=== # === 高风险(0.50-0.65===
@@ -342,14 +343,14 @@ collapse:
probability: 0.55 probability: 0.55
# === 中风险(0.20-0.40=== # === 中风险(0.20-0.40===
# 近河道+缓坡+松散堆积物:侧蚀累积效应 # 近河道+缓坡+松散堆积物+降雨:侧蚀累积效应需降雨触发
- condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [medium]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [medium]}
probability: 0.35 probability: 0.35
# 大雨+中坡 # 大雨+中坡
- condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], slope: [medium, high]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], slope: [medium, high]}
probability: 0.30 probability: 0.30
# 断裂带+陡坡(无强降雨也有蠕变崩塌风险 # 断裂带+陡坡+降雨(无强降雨蠕变崩塌概率极低,需降雨触发
- condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [high, very_high]}
probability: 0.25 probability: 0.25
# 暴雨+缓坡+松散岩性 # 暴雨+缓坡+松散岩性
- condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]} - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [low, medium], lithology: [unconsolidated]}