构建暴雨灾害链和地震灾害链DBN模型
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wzy-warehouse
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"""
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暴雨灾害链DBN模型
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实现贝叶斯网络推理，预测5类灾害概率
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"""
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import os
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import yaml
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from typing import Optional, List, Dict, Any
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from datetime import datetime
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from app.utils.discretizer import discretizer
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from app.repositories.dbn_repository import DbnRepository
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from app.config.paths import DBN_CONFIG_DIR, get_logger
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logger = get_logger("dbn")
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class RainfallDBN:
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"""暴雨灾害链DBN模型"""
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# 灾害概率→离散等级的阈值映射
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HAZARD_LEVEL_THRESHOLDS = [
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(0.6, 'very_high'),
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(0.4, 'high'),
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(0.2, 'medium'),
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(0.05, 'low'),
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(0.0, 'none'),
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]
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def _probability_to_level(self, prob: float) -> str:
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"""将连续概率映射到离散等级"""
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for threshold, level in self.HAZARD_LEVEL_THRESHOLDS:
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if prob >= threshold:
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return level
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return 'none'
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def __init__(self, config_dir: Optional[str] = None):
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"""
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初始化DBN模型
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Args:
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config_dir: 配置文件目录
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"""
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if config_dir is None:
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config_dir = str(DBN_CONFIG_DIR)
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self.config_dir = config_dir
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self.graph_config = self._load_graph_config()
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self.cpt_config = self._load_cpt_config()
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# 构建贝叶斯网络结构
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self._build_network()
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def _load_graph_config(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""加载图结构配置"""
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config_path = os.path.join(self.config_dir, 'rainfall_dbn_graph.yaml')
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if not os.path.exists(config_path):
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logger.error(f"图结构配置文件不存在: {config_path}")
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return {}
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with open(config_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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config = yaml.safe_load(f)
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return config
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def _load_cpt_config(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""加载CPT配置"""
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config_path = os.path.join(self.config_dir, 'rainfall_cpt_params.yaml')
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if not os.path.exists(config_path):
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logger.error(f"CPT配置文件不存在: {config_path}")
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return {}
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with open(config_path, 'r', encoding='utf-8') as f:
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config = yaml.safe_load(f)
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return config
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def _build_network(self):
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"""构建贝叶斯网络结构"""
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# 获取节点列表
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self.trigger_nodes = self.graph_config.get('layers', {}).get('trigger', [])
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self.environment_nodes = self.graph_config.get('layers', {}).get('environment', [])
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self.hazard_nodes = self.graph_config.get('layers', {}).get('hazard', [])
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# 获取所有节点
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self.all_nodes = self.trigger_nodes + self.environment_nodes + self.hazard_nodes
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# 获取边关系
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self.edges = self.graph_config.get('edges', [])
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# 获取节点状态
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self.node_states = self.graph_config.get('node_states', {})
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# 构建父子关系
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self.children = {node: [] for node in self.all_nodes}
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self.parents = {node: [] for node in self.all_nodes}
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for parent, child in self.edges:
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if parent in self.all_nodes and child in self.all_nodes:
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self.children[parent].append(child)
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self.parents[child].append(parent)
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# 构建CPT表
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self._build_cpt_tables()
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def _build_cpt_tables(self):
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"""构建条件概率表"""
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self.cpt_tables = {}
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for node in self.all_nodes:
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if node in self.cpt_config:
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self.cpt_tables[node] = self.cpt_config[node]
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else:
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# 如果没有配置，使用均匀分布
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states = self.node_states.get(node, ['no', 'yes'])
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if len(states) == 2:
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# 二值节点
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self.cpt_tables[node] = {
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'type': 'prior',
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'probabilities': [0.5, 0.5]
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}
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else:
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# 多值节点
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prob = 1.0 / len(states)
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self.cpt_tables[node] = {
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'type': 'prior',
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'probabilities': [prob] * len(states)
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}
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def _get_node_probability(self, node: str, evidence: Dict[str, str]) -> List[float]:
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"""
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获取节点的概率分布
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Args:
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node: 节点名称
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evidence: 证据字典
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Returns:
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概率分布列表
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"""
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cpt = self.cpt_tables.get(node)
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if not cpt:
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states = self.node_states.get(node, ['no', 'yes'])
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return [1.0 / len(states)] * len(states)
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# 如果是先验概率
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if cpt.get('type') == 'prior':
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return cpt.get('probabilities', [0.5, 0.5])
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# 如果是条件概率
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if cpt.get('type') == 'conditional':
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return self._evaluate_conditional_probability(node, cpt, evidence)
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return [0.5, 0.5]
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def _evaluate_conditional_probability(self, node: str, cpt: Dict[str, Any],
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evidence: Dict[str, str]) -> List[float]:
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"""
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评估条件概率
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Args:
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node: 节点名称
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cpt: CPT配置
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evidence: 证据字典
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Returns:
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概率分布列表
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"""
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states = self.node_states.get(node, ['no', 'yes'])
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default_prob = cpt.get('default_probability', 0.05)
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# 检查规则
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rules = cpt.get('rules', [])
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for rule in rules:
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condition = rule.get('condition', {})
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probability = rule.get('probability', default_prob)
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# 检查是否满足条件
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if self._check_condition(condition, evidence):
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# 返回 [P(no), P(yes)]
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return [1.0 - probability, probability]
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# 如果没有匹配的规则，返回默认概率
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return [1.0 - default_prob, default_prob]
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def _check_condition(self, condition: Dict[str, Any], evidence: Dict[str, str]) -> bool:
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"""
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检查条件是否满足
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Args:
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condition: 条件字典
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evidence: 证据字典
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Returns:
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是否满足
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"""
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for node, required_states in condition.items():
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if node not in evidence:
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return False
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evidence_state = evidence[node]
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# 如果required_states是列表，检查是否在列表中
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if isinstance(required_states, list):
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if evidence_state not in required_states:
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return False
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else:
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# 如果是单个值，检查是否相等
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if evidence_state != required_states:
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return False
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return True
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def predict_single_point(self, point: Dict[str, Any],
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rainfall: Optional[float] = None,
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duration: Optional[float] = None,
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query_time: Optional[datetime] = None) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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对单个点进行预测
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Args:
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point: 点信息（包含 static_factors 字段）
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rainfall: 累计降雨量（可选）
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duration: 持续时间（可选）
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query_time: 查询时间（可选）
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Returns:
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预测结果
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"""
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point_id = point.get('id')
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lon = point.get('lon')
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lat = point.get('lat')
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source_type = point.get('source_type')
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logger.info(f"预测点 ID={point_id}, source_type={source_type}")
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# 获取降雨数据
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if rainfall is not None and duration is not None:
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rain_intensity = rainfall / duration if duration > 0 else 0.0
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rainfall_data = {
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'accum_rain': rainfall,
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'duration_hours': duration,
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'rain_intensity': rain_intensity
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}
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else:
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rainfall_data = DbnRepository.get_rainfall_data_with_duration(lon, lat, query_time)
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# 获取静态因子数据（从 point 的 static_factors 字段）
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raw_factors = point.get('static_factors', {})
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static_factors = {
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'elevation': raw_factors.get('dem_value'),
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'slope': raw_factors.get('slope_value'),
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'aspect': raw_factors.get('aspect_value'),
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'soil_type': raw_factors.get('soil_type'),
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'lithology': raw_factors.get('lithology'),
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'landuse': raw_factors.get('landuse'),
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'terrain': raw_factors.get('landform'),
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'impervious': raw_factors.get('impervious_surface'),
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'ndvi': raw_factors.get('vegetation_index'),
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'sand_content': raw_factors.get('soil_sand'),
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'ph': raw_factors.get('soil_ph'),
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'soil_moisture': raw_factors.get('soil_moisture'),
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'organic_carbon': raw_factors.get('organic_carbon'),
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'dist_to_river': raw_factors.get('river_distance'),
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'dist_to_fault': raw_factors.get('fault_distance'),
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'pipe_density': raw_factors.get('pipe_density')
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}
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# 合并所有因子
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all_factors = {
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'rain_intensity': rainfall_data.get('rain_intensity', 0.0),
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'duration': rainfall_data.get('duration_hours', 0),
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'accum_rain': rainfall_data.get('accum_rain', 0.0),
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**static_factors
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}
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# 离散化
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evidence = discretizer.discretize_all_factors(all_factors)
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# 运行推理
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hazard_results = self._run_inference(evidence)
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# 构造输出
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result = {
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'point_id': point_id,
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'source_type': source_type,
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'lon': lon,
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'lat': lat,
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'disaster_probabilities': {
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h: r['probability'] for h, r in hazard_results.items()
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},
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'disaster_levels': {
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h: r['level'] for h, r in hazard_results.items()
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}
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}
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return result
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def _run_inference(self, evidence: Dict[str, str]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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运行贝叶斯推理
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Args:
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evidence: 证据字典
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Returns:
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灾害概率字典，每个值包含 probability 和 level
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"""
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hazard_probabilities = {}
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for hazard_node in self.hazard_nodes:
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# 获取灾害节点的概率
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prob_dist = self._get_node_probability(hazard_node, evidence)
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# 取发生概率（第二个状态）
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if len(prob_dist) >= 2:
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prob = prob_dist[1]
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else:
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prob = 0.0
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hazard_probabilities[hazard_node] = {
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'probability': round(prob, 4),
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'level': self._probability_to_level(prob)
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}
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return hazard_probabilities
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def predict(self, region_code: Optional[str] = None,
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rainfall: Optional[float] = None,
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duration: Optional[float] = None,
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timestamp: Optional[datetime] = None) -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
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"""
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预测灾害概率
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Args:
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region_code: 行政区划代码（可选）
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rainfall: 累计降雨量（可选，全局值）
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duration: 持续时间（可选，全局值）
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timestamp: 时间（可选）
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Returns:
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预测结果列表
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"""
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# 1. 获取点列表
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points = DbnRepository.get_all_points(region_code)
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if not points:
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logger.warning(f"没有找到点数据，region_code={region_code}")
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return []
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logger.info(f"共找到 {len(points)} 个点")
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# 2. 对每个点进行预测
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results = []
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for point in points:
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try:
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result = self.predict_single_point(
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point,
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rainfall=rainfall,
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duration=duration,
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query_time=timestamp
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)
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results.append(result)
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except Exception as e:
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logger.error(f"预测点 {point.get('id')} 失败: {e}")
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results.append({
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'point_id': point.get('id'),
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'source_type': point.get('source_type'),
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'lon': point.get('lon'),
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'lat': point.get('lat'),
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'error': str(e)
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})
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return results
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def get_model_info(self) -> Dict[str, Any]:
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"""
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获取模型信息
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Returns:
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模型信息字典
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"""
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return {
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'trigger_nodes': self.trigger_nodes,
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'environment_nodes': self.environment_nodes,
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'hazard_nodes': self.hazard_nodes,
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'edges': self.edges,
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'node_states': self.node_states
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}
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# 创建全局实例
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rainfall_dbn = RainfallDBN()
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