构建暴雨灾害链和地震灾害链DBN模型
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wzy-warehouse
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# 地震灾害链 DBN 图结构配置
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# 定义节点、各层节点列表、父子关系
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# 地震触发：滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
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# 推理配置
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inference_config:
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match_strategy: first # first=首条匹配（规则优先级从上到下），max=取最大概率
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default_strategy: use_default # 无规则匹配时使用 default_probability
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max_cpt_parents: 20 # CPT 最大父节点数
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layers:
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# 触发层（3个节点）
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trigger:
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- magnitude # 震级（Richter scale）
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- epicenter_distance # 震中距（km）
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- seismic_intensity # 地震烈度（中国烈度表 I-XII）
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# 环境层（14个节点）
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# 去掉暴雨模型中的 impervious（不透水面）和 pipe_density（管网密度）
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# 这两个因子主要影响城市内涝，与地震地质灾害关系不大
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environment:
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- elevation # 高程
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- slope # 坡度
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- aspect # 坡向
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- soil_type # 土壤分类
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- lithology # 岩性
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- landuse # 土地利用类型
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- terrain # 地形分类
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- ndvi # 植被指数
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- sand_content # 土壤含沙量
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- ph # 土壤PH值
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- soil_moisture # 土壤湿度
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- organic_carbon # 有机碳
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- dist_to_river # 距离河道距离
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- dist_to_fault # 距离断裂带距离
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# 灾害层（3个节点）
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# 地震触发的地质灾害：滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
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# 不含山洪（flash_flood）和内涝（waterlogging），这两个主要由暴雨触发
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hazard:
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- landslide # 滑坡
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- debris_flow # 泥石流
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- collapse # 崩塌
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edges:
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# ============================================
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# 触发层 → 灾害层
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# 地震参数直接影响所有地质灾害类型
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# ============================================
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# 震级 → 灾害
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- [magnitude, landslide]
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- [magnitude, debris_flow]
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- [magnitude, collapse]
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# 震中距 → 灾害
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- [epicenter_distance, landslide]
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- [epicenter_distance, debris_flow]
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- [epicenter_distance, collapse]
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# 地震烈度 → 灾害
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- [seismic_intensity, landslide]
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- [seismic_intensity, debris_flow]
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- [seismic_intensity, collapse]
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# ============================================
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# 环境层 → 灾害层
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# 场地条件影响地震波放大效应和地质灾害易发性
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# ============================================
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# 高程影响泥石流
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# - 泥石流：高程反映沟道纵坡和物源区高差（秦岭北麓800-1500m高发）
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- [elevation, debris_flow]
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# 坡度影响滑坡、泥石流、崩塌（最核心的场地因子）
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# - 滑坡：Newmark位移与坡度直接相关
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# - 泥石流：沟道纵坡决定物源运移能力
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# - 崩塌：陡坡+地震是崩塌的典型触发条件
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- [slope, landslide]
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- [slope, debris_flow]
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- [slope, collapse]
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# 坡向影响滑坡
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# - 阳坡冻融风化强烈，岩体更破碎，地震时更易失稳
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- [aspect, landslide]
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# 土壤类型影响滑坡、泥石流
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# - 初育土（黄土）地震液化和震陷风险高
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- [soil_type, landslide]
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- [soil_type, debris_flow]
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# 岩性影响滑坡、泥石流、崩塌（关键地质因子）
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# - 松散堆积物（黄土）：地震时易发生震陷和液化
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# - 变质岩/花岗岩：节理发育时崩塌风险高
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# - 碎屑岩：软硬互层界面是滑动面
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- [lithology, landslide]
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- [lithology, debris_flow]
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- [lithology, collapse]
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# 土地利用类型影响滑坡
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# - 城市：工程开挖坡脚/弃土加载降低边坡稳定性
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# - 农田：梯田改造改变坡体应力状态
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- [landuse, landslide]
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# 地形分类影响滑坡、泥石流
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# - 山地/深谷：地震波放大效应显著
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# - 丘陵：黄土塬边地震滑坡
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- [terrain, landslide]
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- [terrain, debris_flow]
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# 植被指数影响滑坡、泥石流
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# - 根系加固作用：植被好→滑坡风险降低
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# - 但地震烈度高时植被保护作用有限
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- [ndvi, landslide]
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- [ndvi, debris_flow]
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# 土壤含沙量影响泥石流
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# - 高含沙量→松散物源丰富→地震触发泥石流
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- [sand_content, debris_flow]
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# 土壤湿度影响滑坡、泥石流
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# - 饱和土体在地震荷载下更易发生液化和失稳
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# - 孔隙水压力升高降低有效应力
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- [soil_moisture, landslide]
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- [soil_moisture, debris_flow]
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# 距离河道距离影响泥石流、崩塌
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# - 泥石流：沟道物源供给
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# - 崩塌：河流侧蚀黄土塬边 + 地震触发
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- [dist_to_river, debris_flow]
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- [dist_to_river, collapse]
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# 距离断裂带距离影响滑坡、崩塌、泥石流
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# - 发震断裂附近地震动强度大（近场效应）
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# - 断裂带岩体破碎，地震时更易失稳
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# - 西安：秦岭北缘断裂、渭河断裂为主要发震构造
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- [dist_to_fault, landslide]
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- [dist_to_fault, collapse]
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- [dist_to_fault, debris_flow]
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# 节点状态定义
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# 与 discretization.yaml 保持一致
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node_states:
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# 触发层（地震参数）
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magnitude: [minor, light, moderate, strong, major, great]
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epicenter_distance: [very_near, near, moderate, far]
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seismic_intensity: [minor, light, moderate, severe, extreme]
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# 环境层（与暴雨模型共享，状态名一致）
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elevation: [basin, plain_urban, transition, low_mountain, mid_mountain, high_mountain]
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slope: [flat, gentle, moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]
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aspect: [north, east, south, west, north_loop]
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soil_type: [ultisol, entisol, fluvo_aquic, yellow_brown]
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lithology: [acid_rock, basic_rock, carbonate, metamorphic, mixed_clastic, terrigenous, unconsolidated]
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landuse: [forest, farmland, urban, water, barren]
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terrain: [mountain, plain, deep_valley, hill, gentle_hill, low_mountain, flat_plain]
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ndvi: [water, bare, sparse, moderate, dense, very_dense]
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sand_content: [low, medium, high]
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ph: [acidic, neutral, alkaline]
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soil_moisture: [dry, moist, wet, saturated]
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organic_carbon: [low, medium, high]
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dist_to_river: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
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dist_to_fault: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
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# 灾害层
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landslide: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
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debris_flow: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
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collapse: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
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