构建暴雨灾害链和地震灾害链DBN模型

app/config/dbn/discretization.yaml

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+# 离散化规则配置
+# 定义所有连续因子的分箱规则
+# 包含暴雨灾害链和地震灾害链的全部因子
+
+# ============================================
+# 暴雨触发层离散化规则
+# ============================================
+
+rain_intensity:
+  description: "降雨强度等级"
+  unit: "mm/h"
+  bins: [0, 0.2, 5, 15, 30, 70, 140, 99999]
+  labels: [no_rain, light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]
+
+duration:
+  description: "持续时间"
+  unit: "h"
+  bins: [1, 3, 12, 99999]
+  labels: [short, medium, long]
+
+accum_rain:
+  description: "累计降雨量"
+  unit: "mm"
+  bins: [0, 10, 25, 50, 100, 99999]
+  labels: [trace, light, moderate, heavy, extreme]
+
+# ============================================
+# 地震触发层离散化规则
+# ============================================
+
+magnitude:
+  description: "地震震级"
+  unit: "Richter"
+  # 基于Keefer (1984) 地震触发地质灾害的震级阈值
+  # M<4.0: 无显著地质灾害; M4.0-4.9: 轻微; M5.0-5.9: 中等
+  # M6.0-6.9: 显著; M7.0-7.9: 严重; M≥8.0: 灾难性
+  bins: [0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 10.0]
+  labels: [minor, light, moderate, strong, major, great]
+
+epicenter_distance:
+  description: "震中距"
+  unit: "km"
+  # 地震地质灾害影响范围（Keefer 1984）：
+  # M5.0: ~10km; M6.0: ~30km; M7.0: ~100km; M8.0: ~300km
+  # 分级取各震级影响范围的中位值
+  bins: [0, 30, 100, 300, 99999]
+  labels: [very_near, near, moderate, far]
+
+seismic_intensity:
+  description: "地震烈度"
+  unit: "中国烈度表"
+  # GB 18306-2015 中国地震动参数区划图
+  # I-V: 无显著地质灾害; VI-VII: 轻微; VIII-IX: 显著; X-XII: 严重; >XII: 灾难性
+  # 输入为数值烈度（1-12），映射到离散等级
+  bins: [0, 5, 7, 9, 12, 99]
+  labels: [minor, light, moderate, severe, extreme]
+
+# ============================================
+# 环境层离散化规则（暴雨/地震共享）
+# ============================================
+
+elevation:
+  description: "高程"
+  unit: "m"
+  bins: [0, 400, 500, 700, 1000, 1500, 99999]
+  labels: [basin, plain_urban, transition, low_mountain, mid_mountain, high_mountain]
+
+slope:
+  description: "坡度"
+  unit: "度"
+  bins: [0, 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 90]
+  labels: [flat, gentle, moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]
+
+aspect:
+  description: "坡向"
+  unit: "度"
+  bins: [0, 45, 135, 225, 315, 360]
+  labels: [north, east, south, west, north_loop]
+
+soil_type:
+  description: "土壤分类（中国土壤分类系统）"
+  unit: "分类代码"
+  # 数据库实际编码（xian_soil 表 value 字段，来源：pg_description）
+  mapping:
+    0: ultisol        # 老成土
+    6: entisol        # 初育土
+    11: fluvo_aquic   # 潮土
+    18: yellow_brown  # 黄棕壤
+  default: entisol
+
+lithology:
+  description: "岩性（中国地质分类）"
+  unit: "分类代码"
+  # 数据库实际编码（xian_lithology 表 value 字段，来源：pg_description）
+  # 工程地质分组：按 SiO₂ 含量 + 成因合并同类岩性
+  mapping:
+    1: acid_rock          # 酸性侵入岩（花岗岩等，SiO₂>66%，100条）
+    3: basic_rock         # 基性侵入岩（辉长岩等，SiO₂ 45-52%，5条）
+    4: basic_rock         # 基性火山岩（玄武岩等，合并入基性岩，17条）
+    5: carbonate          # 碳酸盐岩（石灰岩、白云岩，142条）
+    10: metamorphic       # 变质岩（片麻岩、大理岩，156条）
+    11: mixed_clastic     # 混合碎屑沉积岩（砂岩+泥岩互层，35条）
+    13: terrigenous       # 陆源碎屑岩（砂岩、粉砂岩，180条）
+    14: unconsolidated    # 松散堆积物（黄土、冲洪积，566条）
+  default: unconsolidated
+
+landuse:
+  description: "土地利用类型"
+  unit: "分类代码"
+  # 数据库实际编码（GLC FCS30 分类体系）
+  mapping:
+    10: forest       # 林地（377条）
+    30: farmland     # 农田（190条）
+    40: urban        # 城市（105条）
+    50: water        # 水域（505条）
+    60: barren       # 裸地（23条）
+    80: farmland     # 耕地（1条，合并入农田）
+  default: farmland
+
+terrain:
+  description: "地形分类（中国地形分类体系）"
+  unit: "分类代码"
+  # 数据库实际编码（xian_landform 表 value 字段，来源：pg_description）
+  # 工程地质分组：按坡度 + 地貌特征合并
+  mapping:
+    1: mountain       # 断裂山麓地带（秦岭北麓，276条）
+    2: plain          # 平坦平原（渭河平原，218条）
+    3: deep_valley    # 高山深峡谷（秦岭腹地，11条）
+    4: hill           # 丘陵（黄土塬，250条）
+    5: gentle_hill    # 低缓丘陵（塬边过渡带，86条）
+    6: low_mountain   # 低山（骊山等，261条）
+    7: flat_plain     # 平缓平原（冲积平原，99条）
+  default: hill
+
+impervious:
+  description: "不透水面"
+  unit: "比例"
+  bins: [0, 0.3, 0.6, 1.0]
+  labels: [low, medium, high]
+
+ndvi:
+  description: "植被指数"
+  unit: "NDVI值"
+  bins: [-1, 0, 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.8, 1.0]
+  labels: [water, bare, sparse, moderate, dense, very_dense]
+
+sand_content:
+  description: "土壤含沙量"
+  unit: "百分比"
+  bins: [0, 20, 40, 100]
+  labels: [low, medium, high]
+
+ph:
+  description: "土壤PH值"
+  unit: "PH值"
+  bins: [0, 6.5, 7.5, 14]
+  labels: [acidic, neutral, alkaline]
+
+soil_moisture:
+  description: "土壤湿度"
+  unit: "百分比"
+  bins: [0, 20, 40, 80, 100]
+  labels: [dry, moist, wet, saturated]
+
+organic_carbon:
+  description: "有机碳"
+  unit: "百分比"
+  bins: [0, 1, 2, 100]
+  labels: [low, medium, high]
+
+dist_to_river:
+  description: "距离河道距离"
+  unit: "米"
+  bins: [0, 50, 200, 500, 99999]
+  labels: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
+
+dist_to_fault:
+  description: "距离断裂带距离"
+  unit: "米"
+  bins: [0, 500, 1500, 3000, 99999]
+  labels: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
+
+pipe_density:
+  description: "供水管网密度"
+  unit: "m/m²"
+  # 默认规则
+  default:
+    bins: [0, 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, 99999]
+    labels: [none, low, medium, high]
+  # 区域覆盖规则
+  region_overrides:
+    610100:  # 西安市
+      bins: [0, 0.002, 0.015, 0.04, 99999]
+      labels: [none, low, medium, high]

app/config/dbn/earthquake_cpt_params.yaml

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+# ================================================================
+# 地震灾害链 条件概率表（CPT）配置
+# ================================================================
+# 地震触发地质灾害：滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
+# 参考：
+#   - Keefer (1984) Landslides caused by earthquakes
+#   - Rodriguez et al. (1999) Earthquake-induced landslides
+#   - 1556年华县M8.0地震诱发滑坡史料
+#   - GB 18306-2015 中国地震动参数区划图
+
+# 推理配置
+match_strategy: first
+default_strategy: use_default
+
+# ============================================
+# 触发层（地震参数先验概率）
+# ============================================
+# 主要发震构造：秦岭北缘断裂（M7.0+）、渭河断裂（M6.5+）
+# 历史最大地震：1556年华县M8.0（距西安约80km）
+
+magnitude:
+  type: prior
+  # 西安地区地震危险性分析：
+  # - M<4.0（minor）：频繁但无显著地质灾害
+  # - M4.0-4.9（light）：偶发，轻微地质灾害
+  # - M5.0-5.9（moderate）：可能触发近场滑坡
+  # - M6.0-6.9（strong）：显著地质灾害
+  # - M7.0-7.9（major）：区域性地质灾害
+  # - M≥8.0（great）：灾难性（如1556年华县地震）
+  # [minor, light, moderate, strong, major, great]
+  probabilities: [0.40, 0.25, 0.18, 0.10, 0.05, 0.02]
+
+epicenter_distance:
+  type: prior
+  # 西安地区可能的震中距分布：
+  # - <30km（very_near）：本地断裂发震
+  # - 30-100km（near）：渭河断裂、秦岭北缘断裂
+  # - 100-300km（moderate）：汾渭地震带
+  # - >300km（far）：远场地震
+  # [very_near, near, moderate, far]
+  probabilities: [0.10, 0.25, 0.35, 0.30]
+
+seismic_intensity:
+  type: prior
+  # 西安地区地震烈度分布：
+  # - I-V（minor）：无显著地质灾害
+  # - VI-VII（light）：轻微地质灾害
+  # - VIII-IX（moderate）：显著地质灾害
+  # - X-XII（severe）：严重地质灾害
+  # > XII（extreme）：灾难性（1556年华县地震西安烈度约IX-X）
+  # [minor, light, moderate, severe, extreme]
+  probabilities: [0.35, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10, 0.05]
+
+# ============================================
+# 灾害层（条件概率）
+# 规则匹配策略：首条匹配，从上到下扫描，命中即返回
+# 高风险规则在前，低风险兜底规则在后
+# ============================================
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 滑坡（Landslide）- 地震触发
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 黄土滑坡：黄土台塬塬边（白鹿塬、神禾塬、少陵塬），地震时黄土震陷
+#   - 岩质滑坡：秦岭北坡变质岩/花岗岩区，节理面在地震荷载下失稳
+#   - 工程滑坡：城区开挖坡脚，地震加剧变形
+#   - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线近场效应显著
+#   - 1556年华县地震：触发了渭河平原大规模黄土滑坡
+# ----------------------------------------
+landslide:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [magnitude, epicenter_distance, slope, lithology, soil_moisture, dist_to_fault, ndvi, soil_type, landuse, terrain]
+  default_probability: 0.02
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
+    # 大地震+近场+陡坡：最大规模地震滑坡
+    # 参考：M7.0+近场（<30km）陡坡区滑坡概率>80%（Keefer 1984）
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.85
+    # 大地震+近场+饱和土体：黄土震陷+液化
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.82
+    # 强震+近场+陡坡+断裂带附近：近场效应+岩体破碎
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.80
+    # 大地震+近场+松散堆积物：黄土滑坡（1556年华县地震典型场景）
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.78
+
+    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
+    # 强震+近场+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.65
+    # 大地震+中距+陡坡+断裂带
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.62
+    # 强震+中陡坡+松散堆积物：黄土塬边滑坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 强震+陡坡+饱和土体
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 大地震+近场+丘陵地形：黄土塬边
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], terrain: [hill, gentle_hill]}
+      probability: 0.55
+    # 强震+近场+初育土（黄土）
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], soil_type: [entisol]}
+      probability: 0.52
+
+    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
+    # 中强震+近场+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.40
+    # 强震+中距+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 强震+中坡+松散堆积物
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [moderate, steep], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 大地震+远距（仍有影响，1556年华县地震影响范围>300km）
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [moderate, far], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.28
+    # 断裂带+陡坡（即使中小地震也有蠕变风险）
+    - condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.25
+    # 中强震+中坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], slope: [moderate, steep]}
+      probability: 0.22
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {magnitude: [minor]}
+      probability: 0.02
+    - condition: {epicenter_distance: [far]}
+      probability: 0.02
+    - condition: {slope: [flat, gentle]}
+      probability: 0.01
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 泥石流（Debris Flow）- 地震触发
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 秦岭北麓沟道：地震松动物源→后续降雨触发泥石流
+#   - 地震直接触发：强震+陡坡+松散物源可直接启动泥石流
+#   - 震后效应：地震后数年内泥石流频率显著增加（物源松动）
+#   - 典型场景：M6.0+秦岭北坡沟道区
+# ----------------------------------------
+debris_flow:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [magnitude, epicenter_distance, slope, elevation, lithology, sand_content, soil_moisture, dist_to_fault, ndvi]
+  default_probability: 0.01
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
+    # 大地震+近场+陡坡+高含沙量：物源充足+强震动
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], sand_content: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.80
+    # 大地震+近场+中高山区+松散堆积物：秦岭北麓沟道
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], elevation: [mid_mountain, high_mountain], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.78
+    # 强震+近场+陡坡+断裂带：破碎岩体提供物源
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.75
+    # 大地震+饱和+陡坡：液化+滑坡→泥石流
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.72
+
+    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
+    # 强震+近场+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.62
+    # 强震+中高山区+松散堆积物
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], elevation: [mid_mountain, high_mountain], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 大地震+中距+陡坡+高含沙量
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], sand_content: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.55
+    # 强震+陡坡+松散堆积物
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.52
+
+    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
+    # 中强震+近场+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.38
+    # 强震+中高山区（物源区本身不稳定）
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], elevation: [mid_mountain, high_mountain], slope: [moderate, steep]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 大地震+远距+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [moderate, far], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.28
+    # 断裂带+陡坡+松散堆积物（无强震也有蠕变崩塌→物源积累）
+    - condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.22
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {magnitude: [minor]}
+      probability: 0.01
+    - condition: {slope: [flat, gentle]}
+      probability: 0.01
+    - condition: {elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.01
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 崩塌（Collapse）- 地震触发
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 黄土崩塌：渭河、灞河、浐河侧蚀黄土塬边+地震触发
+#   - 岩质崩塌：秦岭北坡陡崖（>45°），花岗岩/变质岩节理面失稳
+#   - 崩塌是地震触发最敏感的地质灾害类型
+#   - 1556年华县地震：秦岭北坡大规模崩塌
+#   - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线崩塌密度最高
+# ----------------------------------------
+collapse:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [magnitude, epicenter_distance, slope, lithology, dist_to_fault, dist_to_river, soil_moisture]
+  default_probability: 0.02
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
+    # 大地震+近场+极陡坡+硬岩（花岗岩/变质岩）：节理面失稳
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [acid_rock, metamorphic, basic_rock]}
+      probability: 0.88
+    # 大地震+近场+陡坡+断裂带：岩体极度破碎
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.85
+    # 大地震+近场+松散堆积物+陡坡：黄土塬边崩塌
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated, terrigenous, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.80
+    # 强震+近场+极陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near], slope: [very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.75
+
+    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
+    # 强震+近场+陡坡+断裂带
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.68
+    # 大地震+中距+陡坡+硬岩
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [acid_rock, metamorphic]}
+      probability: 0.62
+    # 强震+近场+陡坡+松散堆积物：黄土崩塌
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 近河道+陡坡+松散堆积物+地震：河流侧蚀+地震触发
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated], magnitude: [strong, major, great]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 强震+中陡坡+断裂带
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.55
+
+    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
+    # 中强震+近场+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [moderate, strong], epicenter_distance: [very_near, near], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.40
+    # 强震+中距+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [strong, major], epicenter_distance: [near, moderate], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 近河道+中坡+松散堆积物（无强震也有侧蚀崩塌）
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [moderate, steep]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 断裂带+陡坡（无强震也有蠕变崩塌）
+    - condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.28
+    # 大地震+远距+陡坡
+    - condition: {magnitude: [major, great], epicenter_distance: [moderate, far], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.25
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {magnitude: [minor]}
+      probability: 0.01
+    - condition: {slope: [flat, gentle]}
+      probability: 0.01

app/config/dbn/earthquake_dbn_graph.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+# 地震灾害链 DBN 图结构配置
+# 定义节点、各层节点列表、父子关系
+# 地震触发：滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
+
+# 推理配置
+inference_config:
+  match_strategy: first        # first=首条匹配（规则优先级从上到下），max=取最大概率
+  default_strategy: use_default  # 无规则匹配时使用 default_probability
+  max_cpt_parents: 20           # CPT 最大父节点数
+
+layers:
+  # 触发层（3个节点）
+  trigger:
+    - magnitude             # 震级（Richter scale）
+    - epicenter_distance    # 震中距（km）
+    - seismic_intensity     # 地震烈度（中国烈度表 I-XII）
+
+  # 环境层（14个节点）
+  # 去掉暴雨模型中的 impervious（不透水面）和 pipe_density（管网密度）
+  # 这两个因子主要影响城市内涝，与地震地质灾害关系不大
+  environment:
+    - elevation           # 高程
+    - slope               # 坡度
+    - aspect              # 坡向
+    - soil_type           # 土壤分类
+    - lithology           # 岩性
+    - landuse             # 土地利用类型
+    - terrain             # 地形分类
+    - ndvi                # 植被指数
+    - sand_content        # 土壤含沙量
+    - ph                  # 土壤PH值
+    - soil_moisture       # 土壤湿度
+    - organic_carbon      # 有机碳
+    - dist_to_river       # 距离河道距离
+    - dist_to_fault       # 距离断裂带距离
+
+  # 灾害层（3个节点）
+  # 地震触发的地质灾害：滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
+  # 不含山洪（flash_flood）和内涝（waterlogging），这两个主要由暴雨触发
+  hazard:
+    - landslide           # 滑坡
+    - debris_flow         # 泥石流
+    - collapse            # 崩塌
+
+edges:
+  # ============================================
+  # 触发层 → 灾害层
+  # 地震参数直接影响所有地质灾害类型
+  # ============================================
+
+  # 震级 → 灾害
+  - [magnitude, landslide]
+  - [magnitude, debris_flow]
+  - [magnitude, collapse]
+
+  # 震中距 → 灾害
+  - [epicenter_distance, landslide]
+  - [epicenter_distance, debris_flow]
+  - [epicenter_distance, collapse]
+
+  # 地震烈度 → 灾害
+  - [seismic_intensity, landslide]
+  - [seismic_intensity, debris_flow]
+  - [seismic_intensity, collapse]
+
+  # ============================================
+  # 环境层 → 灾害层
+  # 场地条件影响地震波放大效应和地质灾害易发性
+  # ============================================
+
+  # 高程影响泥石流
+  # - 泥石流：高程反映沟道纵坡和物源区高差（秦岭北麓800-1500m高发）
+  - [elevation, debris_flow]
+
+  # 坡度影响滑坡、泥石流、崩塌（最核心的场地因子）
+  # - 滑坡：Newmark位移与坡度直接相关
+  # - 泥石流：沟道纵坡决定物源运移能力
+  # - 崩塌：陡坡+地震是崩塌的典型触发条件
+  - [slope, landslide]
+  - [slope, debris_flow]
+  - [slope, collapse]
+
+  # 坡向影响滑坡
+  # - 阳坡冻融风化强烈，岩体更破碎，地震时更易失稳
+  - [aspect, landslide]
+
+  # 土壤类型影响滑坡、泥石流
+  # - 初育土（黄土）地震液化和震陷风险高
+  - [soil_type, landslide]
+  - [soil_type, debris_flow]
+
+  # 岩性影响滑坡、泥石流、崩塌（关键地质因子）
+  # - 松散堆积物（黄土）：地震时易发生震陷和液化
+  # - 变质岩/花岗岩：节理发育时崩塌风险高
+  # - 碎屑岩：软硬互层界面是滑动面
+  - [lithology, landslide]
+  - [lithology, debris_flow]
+  - [lithology, collapse]
+
+  # 土地利用类型影响滑坡
+  # - 城市：工程开挖坡脚/弃土加载降低边坡稳定性
+  # - 农田：梯田改造改变坡体应力状态
+  - [landuse, landslide]
+
+  # 地形分类影响滑坡、泥石流
+  # - 山地/深谷：地震波放大效应显著
+  # - 丘陵：黄土塬边地震滑坡
+  - [terrain, landslide]
+  - [terrain, debris_flow]
+
+  # 植被指数影响滑坡、泥石流
+  # - 根系加固作用：植被好→滑坡风险降低
+  # - 但地震烈度高时植被保护作用有限
+  - [ndvi, landslide]
+  - [ndvi, debris_flow]
+
+  # 土壤含沙量影响泥石流
+  # - 高含沙量→松散物源丰富→地震触发泥石流
+  - [sand_content, debris_flow]
+
+  # 土壤湿度影响滑坡、泥石流
+  # - 饱和土体在地震荷载下更易发生液化和失稳
+  # - 孔隙水压力升高降低有效应力
+  - [soil_moisture, landslide]
+  - [soil_moisture, debris_flow]
+
+  # 距离河道距离影响泥石流、崩塌
+  # - 泥石流：沟道物源供给
+  # - 崩塌：河流侧蚀黄土塬边 + 地震触发
+  - [dist_to_river, debris_flow]
+  - [dist_to_river, collapse]
+
+  # 距离断裂带距离影响滑坡、崩塌、泥石流
+  # - 发震断裂附近地震动强度大（近场效应）
+  # - 断裂带岩体破碎，地震时更易失稳
+  # - 西安：秦岭北缘断裂、渭河断裂为主要发震构造
+  - [dist_to_fault, landslide]
+  - [dist_to_fault, collapse]
+  - [dist_to_fault, debris_flow]
+
+# 节点状态定义
+# 与 discretization.yaml 保持一致
+node_states:
+  # 触发层（地震参数）
+  magnitude: [minor, light, moderate, strong, major, great]
+  epicenter_distance: [very_near, near, moderate, far]
+  seismic_intensity: [minor, light, moderate, severe, extreme]
+
+  # 环境层（与暴雨模型共享，状态名一致）
+  elevation: [basin, plain_urban, transition, low_mountain, mid_mountain, high_mountain]
+  slope: [flat, gentle, moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]
+  aspect: [north, east, south, west, north_loop]
+  soil_type: [ultisol, entisol, fluvo_aquic, yellow_brown]
+  lithology: [acid_rock, basic_rock, carbonate, metamorphic, mixed_clastic, terrigenous, unconsolidated]
+  landuse: [forest, farmland, urban, water, barren]
+  terrain: [mountain, plain, deep_valley, hill, gentle_hill, low_mountain, flat_plain]
+  ndvi: [water, bare, sparse, moderate, dense, very_dense]
+  sand_content: [low, medium, high]
+  ph: [acidic, neutral, alkaline]
+  soil_moisture: [dry, moist, wet, saturated]
+  organic_carbon: [low, medium, high]
+  dist_to_river: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
+  dist_to_fault: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
+
+  # 灾害层
+  landslide: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
+  debris_flow: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
+  collapse: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]

app/config/dbn/rainfall_cpt_params.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,362 @@
+# ================================================================
+# 条件概率表（CPT）配置
+# ================================================================
+
+# 推理配置
+match_strategy: first       # 首条匹配（规则优先级从上到下，max为最大匹配）
+default_strategy: use_default  # 无匹配时使用 default_probability
+
+# ============================================
+# 触发层
+# ============================================
+
+rain_intensity:
+  type: prior
+  # 西安气象站统计：无雨~小雨占60%，中雨~大雨25%，暴雨+15%
+  # [无雨, 小雨, 中雨, 大雨, 暴雨, 大暴雨, 特大暴雨]
+  probabilities: [0.35, 0.25, 0.15, 0.10, 0.08, 0.05, 0.02]
+
+duration:
+  type: prior
+  # 西安暴雨特征：短历时（<3h）占多数，长历时（>12h）与华西秋雨相关
+  # [短, 中, 长]
+  probabilities: [0.50, 0.30, 0.20]
+
+accum_rain:
+  type: prior
+  # 西安年均降水550-700mm，汛期集中60-70%
+  # [微量, 小雨, 中雨, 大雨, 极端]
+  probabilities: [0.30, 0.25, 0.20, 0.15, 0.10]
+
+# ============================================
+# 灾害层（条件概率）
+# 规则匹配策略：首条匹配，从上到下扫描，命中即返回
+# 高风险规则在前，低风险兜底规则在后
+# ============================================
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 滑坡（Landslide）
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 黄土滑坡：黄土台塬塬边（白鹿塬、神禾塬、少陵塬），坡度15-35°
+#   - 岩质滑坡：秦岭北坡变质岩/花岗岩区，坡度>25°
+#   - 工程滑坡：城区开挖坡脚（地铁/道路建设）、弃土加载
+#   - 触发因素：前期降雨饱和+短历时高强度暴雨
+#   - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线滑坡密度最高
+# ----------------------------------------
+landslide:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, slope, soil_type, lithology, ndvi, soil_moisture, aspect, dist_to_river, dist_to_fault, landuse]
+  default_probability: 0.02
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
+    # 暴雨+陡坡+前期饱和：秦岭北坡典型触发条件
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.75
+    # 暴雨+陡坡+断裂带附近：秦岭北缘断裂沿线，岩体破碎
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.72
+    # 长历时暴雨+陡坡+饱和：持续降雨导致深层渗流
+    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.70
+
+    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
+    # 暴雨+中陡坡：黄土塬边典型触发条件
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 大雨+陡坡+松散堆积物：黄土滑坡物质条件充分
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 暴雨+中陡坡+断裂带附近
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.55
+    # 城区开挖坡脚/弃土加载+暴雨：工程滑坡
+    - condition: {landuse: [urban], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]}
+      probability: 0.52
+    # 大雨+陡坡+初育土（黄土）：黄土塬边滑坡
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], soil_type: [entisol]}
+      probability: 0.50
+
+    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
+    # 大雨+中坡+饱和
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], slope: [moderate, steep], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.40
+    # 中雨+陡坡
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物：塬面黄土
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [gentle, moderate], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 断裂带+陡坡（无强降雨也有基岩蠕变风险）
+    - condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.25
+    # 城区+中坡：工程扰动
+    - condition: {landuse: [urban], slope: [moderate, steep]}
+      probability: 0.20
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
+      probability: 0.02
+    - condition: {slope: [flat, gentle]}
+      probability: 0.02
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 泥石流（Debris Flow）
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 集中在秦岭北麓沟道（周至、户县、长安、蓝田）
+#   - 物源：秦岭北缘断裂破碎带+坡面松散堆积物+崩塌堆积体
+#   - 沟道纵坡大（>15°），高差500-2000m，势能充足
+#   - 触发：短历时高强度暴雨（3h降雨>50mm）
+#   - 高发区海拔800-1500m（中山带，物源最丰富）
+# ----------------------------------------
+debris_flow:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, slope, soil_type, lithology, sand_content, ndvi, soil_moisture, dist_to_river, dist_to_fault, elevation]
+  default_probability: 0.02
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
+    # 暴雨+陡坡+高含沙量：典型泥石流触发条件
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], sand_content: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.80
+    # 暴雨+陡坡+断裂带附近：破碎岩体提供丰富物源
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.75
+    # 暴雨+中高山区+松散堆积物：秦岭北麓沟道泥石流
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [mid_mountain, high_mountain], lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.75
+    # 长历时暴雨+陡坡+饱和：深层渗透触发
+    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.72
+
+    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
+    # 暴雨+中陡坡：沟道汇流
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 大雨+陡坡+高含沙量
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], sand_content: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.55
+    # 中高山区+中等降雨：物源区本身不稳定
+    - condition: {elevation: [mid_mountain, high_mountain], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]}
+      probability: 0.55
+    # 松散堆积物+陡坡+大雨：黄土泥石流
+    - condition: {lithology: [unconsolidated, mixed_clastic], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]}
+      probability: 0.52
+
+    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
+    # 大雨+中坡
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], slope: [moderate, steep]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 中高山区+中等降雨：物源区稳定性差
+    - condition: {elevation: [mid_mountain, high_mountain], slope: [moderate, steep], rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy]}
+      probability: 0.28
+    # 暴雨+缓坡+松散堆积物
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [gentle, moderate], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.25
+    # 断裂带+陡坡（无强降雨，崩塌堆积物也可启动）
+    - condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.22
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
+      probability: 0.01
+    - condition: {slope: [flat, gentle]}
+      probability: 0.02
+    - condition: {elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.02
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 山洪（Flash Flood）
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 秦岭北坡溪流：短沟、陡坡、汇流快，暴雨后1-2h即达峰值
+#   - 城区河流（灞河、浐河、沣河、涝河）：暴雨叠加城市径流
+#   - 渭河平原低洼区：排水不畅+河道顶托
+#   - 关键控制因子：降雨强度、前期土壤湿度、地形坡度
+#   - 典型事件：2016年7月长安区秦岭北坡山洪，2021年8月蓝田山洪
+# ----------------------------------------
+flash_flood:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, accum_rain, elevation, terrain, dist_to_river, soil_moisture]
+  default_probability: 0.04
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.80）===
+    # 暴雨+饱和土壤+近河道：入渗率接近零，全部转为地表径流
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], soil_moisture: [saturated], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.90
+    # 暴雨+饱和+山地地形：秦岭北坡典型山洪条件
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
+      probability: 0.85
+    # 大暴雨+近河道+低洼区：渭河平原洪水
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close], elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.82
+
+    # === 高风险（0.55-0.75）===
+    # 暴雨+近河道
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.70
+    # 暴雨+山地地形（远离河道但汇流快）
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
+      probability: 0.65
+    # 大雨+饱和土壤+近河道
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 长历时暴雨+山地：持续汇流
+    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 极端累计降雨+山地地形
+    - condition: {accum_rain: [extreme], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
+      probability: 0.55
+
+    # === 中风险（0.25-0.45）===
+    # 大雨+近河道
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.45
+    # 暴雨+湿土（非饱和）
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], soil_moisture: [wet]}
+      probability: 0.40
+    # 大雨+山地地形
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], terrain: [mountain, deep_valley, low_mountain]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 中雨+饱和+近河道
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], soil_moisture: [saturated], dist_to_river: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.40
+    # 极端累计+低洼区
+    - condition: {accum_rain: [extreme], elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 暴雨+缓坡+近河道（平原河道溢出）
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], dist_to_river: [very_close], terrain: [plain, flat_plain]}
+      probability: 0.30
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
+      probability: 0.01
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [far]}
+      probability: 0.03
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 内涝（Waterlogging）
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 主城区（碑林、莲湖、新城）：不透水面率>60%，老城区管网密度不足
+#   - 高新区/经开区：新建区管网较好，但不透水面率高
+#   - 渭河平原低洼区：排水出口受河道水位顶托
+#   - 典型事件：2016年7月城区内涝（1h降雨46mm），2018年7月暴雨内涝
+#   - 关键控制因子：降雨强度+不透水面+管网密度+地形低洼
+# ----------------------------------------
+waterlogging:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, accum_rain, elevation, landuse, impervious, soil_moisture, dist_to_river, pipe_density]
+  default_probability: 0.06
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.80）===
+    # 暴雨+高不透水面+管网不足：老城区典型内涝条件
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], impervious: [high], pipe_density: [none, low]}
+      probability: 0.90
+    # 极端累计降雨+长历时+高不透水面：持续强降雨
+    - condition: {accum_rain: [heavy, extreme], duration: [long], impervious: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.82
+    # 极端累计+低洼区+管网不足：积水无处排出
+    - condition: {accum_rain: [heavy, extreme], elevation: [basin, plain_urban], pipe_density: [none, low]}
+      probability: 0.80
+
+    # === 高风险（0.55-0.75）===
+    # 暴雨+高不透水面
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], impervious: [high]}
+      probability: 0.72
+    # 大雨+长历时+高不透水面
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], duration: [long], impervious: [high]}
+      probability: 0.65
+    # 暴雨+城市用地+管网不足
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], landuse: [urban], pipe_density: [none, low]}
+      probability: 0.68
+    # 大雨+中高不透水面
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour], impervious: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 极端累计+低洼区（不透水面不高也会积水）
+    - condition: {accum_rain: [extreme], elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 饱和土壤+暴雨+低洼区：入渗饱和后地表积水
+    - condition: {soil_moisture: [saturated], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.55
+
+    # === 中风险（0.25-0.45）===
+    # 大雨+中高不透水面
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [moderate, heavy], impervious: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.40
+    # 中等累计+管网不足
+    - condition: {accum_rain: [moderate, heavy], pipe_density: [none, low], impervious: [medium]}
+      probability: 0.38
+    # 暴雨+低不透水面（非城区但排水不畅）
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], impervious: [low]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 近河道+暴雨：排水出口受河道水位顶托
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 农田积水：低洼农田排水不畅
+    - condition: {landuse: [farmland], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], elevation: [basin, plain_urban]}
+      probability: 0.30
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    # 老城区管网堵塞可在无雨时积水
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain], pipe_density: [none, low], landuse: [urban]}
+      probability: 0.05
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
+      probability: 0.02
+    - condition: {impervious: [low], pipe_density: [medium, high]}
+      probability: 0.03
+
+# ----------------------------------------
+# 崩塌（Collapse）
+# 西安特征：
+#   - 黄土崩塌：渭河、灞河、浐河、沣河侧蚀黄土塬边，形成陡坎
+#   - 岩质崩塌：秦岭北坡陡崖（>45°），节理发育的花岗岩/变质岩
+#   - 工程崩塌：道路切坡、采石场边坡
+#   - 触发因素：降雨入渗软化+冻融风化+河流侧蚀
+#   - 断裂带控制：秦岭北缘断裂沿线岩体破碎，崩塌密度高
+# ----------------------------------------
+collapse:
+  type: conditional
+  parents: [rain_intensity, duration, slope, lithology, soil_moisture, dist_to_fault, dist_to_river]
+  default_probability: 0.02
+  rules:
+    # === 极高风险（≥0.70）===
+    # 暴雨+陡坡+松散岩性（黄土/碎屑岩）：黄土塬边崩塌
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [terrigenous, unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.72
+    # 近河道+松散堆积物+陡坡：河流侧蚀致崩塌（渭河/灞河/浐河）
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.70
+
+    # === 高风险（0.50-0.65）===
+    # 暴雨+陡坡+断裂带附近：岩体破碎
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], dist_to_fault: [very_close, close]}
+      probability: 0.65
+    # 暴雨+中陡坡+饱和：岩土体强度降低
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], soil_moisture: [wet, saturated]}
+      probability: 0.60
+    # 近河道+暴雨+中陡坡：岸坡浸泡+洪水冲刷
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.58
+    # 暴雨+中陡坡
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.50
+    # 长历时+大雨+陡坡+松散岩性：持续入渗软化
+    - condition: {duration: [long], rain_intensity: [heavy, storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep], lithology: [terrigenous, unconsolidated, mixed_clastic]}
+      probability: 0.55
+
+    # === 中风险（0.20-0.40）===
+    # 近河道+缓坡+松散堆积物：侧蚀累积效应
+    - condition: {dist_to_river: [very_close, close], lithology: [unconsolidated], slope: [moderate]}
+      probability: 0.35
+    # 大雨+中坡
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [heavy], slope: [moderate, steep]}
+      probability: 0.30
+    # 断裂带+陡坡（无强降雨也有蠕变崩塌风险）
+    - condition: {dist_to_fault: [very_close], slope: [steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]}
+      probability: 0.25
+    # 暴雨+缓坡+松散岩性
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [storm, downpour, extreme], slope: [gentle, moderate], lithology: [unconsolidated]}
+      probability: 0.22
+
+    # === 低风险兜底（≤0.05）===
+    - condition: {rain_intensity: [no_rain, light]}
+      probability: 0.01
+    - condition: {slope: [flat, gentle]}
+      probability: 0.01

app/config/dbn/rainfall_dbn_graph.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,168 @@
+# DBN 图结构配置
+# 定义节点、各层节点列表、父子关系
+
+# 推理配置
+inference_config:
+  match_strategy: first        # first=首条匹配（规则优先级从上到下），max=取最大概率
+  default_strategy: use_default  # 无规则匹配时使用 default_probability
+  max_cpt_parents: 20           # CPT 最大父节点数（超过则采用规则加权融合）
+
+layers:
+  # 触发层（3个节点）
+  trigger:
+    - rain_intensity      # 降雨强度
+    - duration            # 持续时间
+    - accum_rain          # 累计降雨量
+
+  # 环境层（16个节点）
+  environment:
+    - elevation           # 高程
+    - slope               # 坡度
+    - aspect              # 坡向
+    - soil_type           # 土壤分类
+    - lithology           # 岩性
+    - landuse             # 土地利用类型
+    - terrain             # 地形分类
+    - impervious          # 不透水面
+    - ndvi                # 植被指数
+    - sand_content        # 土壤含沙量
+    - ph                  # 土壤PH值（辅助因子，不入CPT）
+    - soil_moisture       # 土壤湿度
+    - organic_carbon      # 有机碳（辅助因子，不入CPT）
+    - dist_to_river       # 距离河道距离
+    - dist_to_fault       # 距离断裂带距离
+    - pipe_density        # 供水管网密度
+
+  # 灾害层（5个节点）
+  hazard:
+    - landslide           # 滑坡
+    - debris_flow         # 泥石流
+    - flash_flood         # 山洪
+    - waterlogging        # 内涝
+    - collapse            # 崩塌
+
+edges:
+  # 触发层 → 灾害层
+  # 降雨强度
+  - [rain_intensity, landslide]
+  - [rain_intensity, debris_flow]
+  - [rain_intensity, flash_flood]
+  - [rain_intensity, waterlogging]
+  - [rain_intensity, collapse]
+
+  # 持续时间
+  - [duration, landslide]
+  - [duration, debris_flow]
+  - [ duration, flash_flood ]
+  - [duration, waterlogging]
+  - [duration, collapse]
+
+  # 累计降雨量
+  - [accum_rain, landslide]
+  - [accum_rain, debris_flow]
+  - [accum_rain, flash_flood]
+  - [accum_rain, waterlogging]
+  - [accum_rain, collapse]
+
+  # 环境层 → 灾害层
+  # 高程影响山洪、内涝、泥石流
+  # - 山洪：高程影响汇流面积和河道坡降
+  # - 内涝：低洼处积水
+  # - 泥石流：高程反映沟道纵坡和物源区高差（秦岭北麓1000m+高发）
+  - [elevation, flash_flood]
+  - [elevation, waterlogging]
+  - [elevation, debris_flow]
+
+  # 坡度影响滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
+  - [slope, landslide]
+  - [slope, debris_flow]
+  - [slope, collapse]
+
+  # 坡向影响滑坡（阳坡冻融风化强烈）
+  - [aspect, landslide]
+
+  # 土壤类型影响滑坡、泥石流
+  - [soil_type, landslide]
+  - [soil_type, debris_flow]
+
+  # 岩性影响滑坡、泥石流、崩塌
+  - [lithology, landslide]
+  - [lithology, debris_flow]
+  - [lithology, collapse]
+
+  # 土地利用类型影响内涝、滑坡
+  # - 内涝：城市地表不透水
+  # - 滑坡：开挖坡脚/弃土加载/梯田改造
+  - [landuse, waterlogging]
+  - [landuse, landslide]
+
+  # 地形分类影响山洪、内涝
+  - [terrain, flash_flood]
+  - [terrain, waterlogging]
+
+  # 不透水面影响内涝
+  - [impervious, waterlogging]
+
+  # 植被指数影响滑坡、泥石流
+  - [ndvi, landslide]
+  - [ndvi, debris_flow]
+
+  # 土壤含沙量影响泥石流
+  - [sand_content, debris_flow]
+
+  # 土壤湿度影响滑坡、泥石流、内涝、山洪
+  # - 山洪：前期土壤湿度决定入渗率，饱和土壤几乎全部转为地表径流
+  - [soil_moisture, landslide]
+  - [soil_moisture, debris_flow]
+  - [soil_moisture, waterlogging]
+  - [soil_moisture, flash_flood]
+
+  # 距离河道距离影响山洪、泥石流、内涝、崩塌
+  # - 山洪：河道溢出 → [dist_to_river, flash_flood]
+  # - 泥石流：沟道物源供给 → [dist_to_river, debris_flow]
+  # - 内涝：排水出口受阻 → [dist_to_river, waterlogging]
+  # - 崩塌：河流侧蚀黄土塬边（渭河/灞河/浐河/沣河）→ [dist_to_river, collapse]
+  - [dist_to_river, flash_flood]
+  - [dist_to_river, debris_flow]
+  - [dist_to_river, waterlogging]
+  - [dist_to_river, collapse]
+
+  # 距离断裂带距离影响滑坡、崩塌、泥石流
+  - [dist_to_fault, landslide]
+  - [dist_to_fault, collapse]
+  - [dist_to_fault, debris_flow]
+
+  # 供水管网密度影响内涝
+  - [pipe_density, waterlogging]
+
+# 节点状态定义（与 discretization.yaml 保持一致）
+node_states:
+  # 触发层
+  rain_intensity: [no_rain, light, moderate, heavy, storm, downpour, extreme]
+  duration: [short, medium, long]
+  accum_rain: [trace, light, moderate, heavy, extreme]
+
+  # 环境层（离散字段状态名与数据库编码一一对应，连续字段用工程分级）
+  elevation: [basin, plain_urban, transition, low_mountain, mid_mountain, high_mountain]
+  slope: [flat, gentle, moderate, steep, very_steep, extreme_steep]
+  aspect: [north, east, south, west, north_loop]
+  soil_type: [ultisol, entisol, fluvo_aquic, yellow_brown]
+  lithology: [acid_rock, basic_rock, carbonate, metamorphic, mixed_clastic, terrigenous, unconsolidated]
+  landuse: [forest, farmland, urban, water, barren]
+  terrain: [mountain, plain, deep_valley, hill, gentle_hill, low_mountain, flat_plain]
+  impervious: [low, medium, high]
+  ndvi: [water, bare, sparse, moderate, dense, very_dense]
+  sand_content: [low, medium, high]
+  ph: [acidic, neutral, alkaline]
+  soil_moisture: [dry, moist, wet, saturated]
+  organic_carbon: [low, medium, high]
+  dist_to_river: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
+  dist_to_fault: [very_close, close, moderate, far]
+  pipe_density: [none, low, medium, high]
+
+  # 灾害层
+  landslide: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
+  debris_flow: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
+  flash_flood: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
+  waterlogging: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]
+  collapse: [none, low, medium, high, very_high]