diff --git a/app/api/earthquake.py b/app/api/earthquake.py
index 4f49070..691cb9d 100644
--- a/app/api/earthquake.py
+++ b/app/api/earthquake.py
@@ -34,8 +34,10 @@ def _build_prediction_map(results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, float]:
     return result_map
 
 
-def _build_prediction_map_with_location(results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]]:
+def _build_prediction_map_with_location(results: List[Dict[str, Any]], threshold: float = 50.0) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]]:
     """将模型原始结果转换为返回格式: {id_type: {probability, lon, lat}}"""
+    from config import settings
+    threshold = getattr(settings, 'PREDICT_PROBABILITY_THRESHOLD', threshold)
     result_map = {}
     for r in results:
         probs = r.get("disaster_probabilities", {})
@@ -45,9 +47,13 @@ def _build_prediction_map_with_location(results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[s
         source_id = r["source_id"]
         source_type = r.get("source_type")
         max_hazard = max(probs, key=probs.get)
+        prob_value = round(probs[max_hazard] * 100, 2)
+        # 低于阈值不返回
+        if prob_value < threshold:
+            continue
         key = f"{source_id}_{source_type}"
         result_map[key] = {
-            "probability": round(probs[max_hazard] * 100, 2),
+            "probability": prob_value,
             "lon": r.get("lon"),
             "lat": r.get("lat")
         }
diff --git a/app/api/rainfall.py b/app/api/rainfall.py
index 0f00df2..768dec7 100644
--- a/app/api/rainfall.py
+++ b/app/api/rainfall.py
@@ -37,8 +37,10 @@ def _build_prediction_map(results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, float]:
     return result_map
 
 
-def _build_prediction_map_with_location(results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]]:
+def _build_prediction_map_with_location(results: List[Dict[str, Any]], threshold: float = 50.0) -> Dict[str, Dict[str, Any]]:
     """将模型原始结果转换为返回格式: {id_type: {probability, lon, lat}}"""
+    from config import settings
+    threshold = getattr(settings, 'PREDICT_PROBABILITY_THRESHOLD', threshold)
     result_map = {}
     for r in results:
         probs = r.get("disaster_probabilities", {})
@@ -48,9 +50,13 @@ def _build_prediction_map_with_location(results: List[Dict[str, Any]]) -> Dict[s
         source_id = r["source_id"]
         source_type = r.get("source_type")
         max_hazard = max(probs, key=probs.get)
+        prob_value = round(probs[max_hazard] * 100, 2)
+        # 低于阈值不返回
+        if prob_value < threshold:
+            continue
         key = f"{source_id}_{source_type}"
         result_map[key] = {
-            "probability": round(probs[max_hazard] * 100, 2),
+            "probability": prob_value,
             "lon": r.get("lon"),
             "lat": r.get("lat")
         }
diff --git a/settings.toml b/settings.toml
index d6e9ac1..83ba84d 100644
--- a/settings.toml
+++ b/settings.toml
@@ -8,6 +8,8 @@ RAIN_STATION_GRID_DIR = "/xian/rainfall/grid/images/:id"
 REDIS_RAIN_STATION_GRID_KEY = "xian:rainfall:rain_station_grid"
 # 雨量站存储标识符的redis的key
 REDIS_RAIN_STATION_IDENTIFIER_KEY = "xian:rainfall:rain_station_identifier"
+# 预测结果概率阈值（低于此值不返回给前端）
+PREDICT_PROBABILITY_THRESHOLD = 50
 
 # 开发环境
 [development]